Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) Carolina Panthers/Chicago Bears Under 38.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
You have to feel for Al Michaels who is forced to attend, watch, and call this game. I can already hear the subtle snide remarks about the ugliness of this game and he’s right, I don’t expect this to be a quality display of football. So I just have to go with the under here between a backup quarterback in Tyson Bagent, and a struggling rookie in Bryce Young who’s getting no protection. There’s also decent winds expected at Soldier Field for this game, so I see that helping extend the 23-7 run to the under for primetime games this year.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Adam Thielen Over 6.5 Receptions (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Thielen’s run of 6 straight overs on his reception prop finally came to an end last week, but I see it starting back up tonight. The veteran just wasn’t targeted enough, inexplicable against a terrible Colts defense, but something I think Bryce Young learns his lesson on. Chicago is 30th in opponent completion percentage, and the windy conditions should force the Panthers into shorter throws where Thielen is most adept. Say what you will about Bryce Young, but he is very accurate on short and intermediate routes, so look for Thielen to get plenty of work tonight.
Extra Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Chuba Hubbard Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Hubbard is clearly the featured back in this offense now that his usage has exploded the past 3 games. While the Bears have a good run defense, they get shredded by running backs in the passing game, allowing 64 yards per game and 8.2 yards per target. With Hubbard on the field much more, he should get the check-down receptions that allow him to clear this total.
NBA (1 Unit) Milwaukee Bucks/Indiana Pacers Over 241.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on NBATV
Massive total last night for Indiana’s game; no problem. Massive total again tonight, and I have no problem taking the over once again. The Pacers ran out a bad defensive team from Utah, crossing the 120-point threshold for the 4th straight game. The efficiency numbers for this team are just wild, even better than last season’s record-breaking Sacramento squad with 1.176 points per possession.
But don’t forget about Milwaukee here, who has looked pretty good themselves on offense as Dame Time and The Greek Freak start to gel. The problem for the Bucks has been defensively, especially on the perimeter without Jrue Holiday. The Pacers should continue to feast on a Milwaukee defense that’s down to 26th in efficiency, while the Bucks have no trouble keeping pace since both teams are top-5 in tempo. With both squads also on a back-to-back here I just don’t think defense is going to be the story, so I’ll keep riding this Indiana overs train.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Virginia @ Louisville -20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN
This Louisville team is one of the better stories in college football this season, and I don’t see them letting up one bit tonight. What’s really been impressive is their defense, which hasn’t allowed a touchdown in two straight games. That defense will be somewhat tested today by a Virginia offense that likes to live dangerously, with backup quarterback Anthony Colandrea creating a big play for either team on just about every throw.
But ultimately the talent on both sides of the ball for the Cardinals should prevail and run out the Cavaliers. Quarterback Jack Plummer has torched the other bad ACC defenses, and UVA is horribly inefficient at 123rd in opponent yards per point. In their true home games the Cardinals are 5-0 ATS and covering by an average 17.0 point margin, so tonight should be no different and I like the number here below 3 touchdowns.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1604-1434 ATS (+82.0 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.